Is 60 a Possibility?

This article first appeared in Politico on October 8, 2008. Written by Reid Wilson and Josh Kraushaar

With Election Day less than a month away, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairman Chuck Schumer sounded confident that Senate Democrats are well-positioned to make substantial gains.

At a press briefing this morning, Schumer pointed to 12 Republican-held seats where Democrats are leading or within striking distance. To win a 60-seat filibuster proof majority, the party needs to win nine of them.

“The wind is more strongly at our back than ever before,” Schumer said. “The message of economic change is just succeeding everywhere."

Still, for all the party's opportunities, Schumer remained reluctant to suggest the Democratic conference would reach that 60-seat majority come January. Asked what the chances of achieving it were, Schumer would only say: "They're better than they were two weeks ago."

Schumer announced that the committee will now be committing resources into Kentucky against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and the DSCC just went up with an ad against him today.

Schumer said that the committee’s internal polling shows McConnell “neck-and-neck” with his Democratic opponent, businessman Bruce Lunsford.

Along with Kentucky and the five Senate contests in which Democrats have led for months -- including Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia -- Schumer pointed to two more Republican incumbents who DSCC polls show trailing their Democratic rivals. "In North Carolina and Oregon in the last few weeks, we've pulled ahead," he said.

Schumer said Tarheel voters were becoming more comfortable with the idea of state Senator Kay Hagan replacing Elizabeth Dole. He pointed to an advertisement the DSCC ran he said had changed the race. In the ad, two men in rocking chairs wonder "what's happened to the Liddy Dole I knew?"

Oregon Senator Gordon Smith, who has slammed Democratic opponent Jeff Merkley on a number of issues, may be experiencing the same backlash as Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman, Schumer said. Merkley, he said, has improved as a candidate while Smith has struggled to find a consistent message.

Schumer voiced optimism about Minnesota, where Coleman finds himself virtually tied with satirist Al Franken; about Georgia, where Senator Saxby Chambliss suddenly faces a virtually even race against Democrat Jim Martin; and about Mississippi, where former Governor Ronnie Musgrove is giving Republican Senator Roger Wicker a tough challenge. DSCC polls also show Maine Senator Susan Collins with a much smaller lead over Rep. Tom Allen than she once enjoyed.

Schumer also warned about the free spending of the Chamber of Commerce, which he likened to a “wing of the NRSC” this election. The Chamber has spent $16.3 million in independent expenditures on behalf of Republican Senate candidates, while only $329,000 on behalf of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.)

He argued that many of the Chamber’s messages “dovetail” with the campaign committee’s messaging.

But Democrats still hold a substantial financial advantage, even with the third-party expenditures. In August, the DSCC spent $13.7 million to the NRSC’s $3 million, and still held a comfortable cash-on-hand advantage.

And Schumer admitted that Sarah Palin's pick as the John McCain's running mate did cause some contests to tighten in early September, but he said the recent economic upheaval has wiped away any advantage Palin brought the GOP.